The next general election is constitutionally due by October 2007 however there is a three- month grace period that could see it extended to January 2008. The naming of a date is the sole prerogative of the Prime Minister and as the incumbent the timing will depend on when she believes she is most likely to win.
Last call
Regardless of the outcome of the general election it will likely be the last contested by “Simple Miller” and “Bruised Golding” as leaders of their respective parties. And that’s not a bad thing, as it would mark the end of two first generation garrison creators and the beginning of a new wave of political agitation in Jamaica. Assume that the incumbent win or even that the opposition wins, in either case one of the parties will have achieved state power and with that being the most decisive factor in their earlier ascension to party leader, the gloves will come off as the internal strife intensifies resulting in leadership change. Since both parties cannot win, the scenario for the loser is no different, he or she will be ousted as party leader- resign to consider political future (Golding) or posted as Ambassador-at-large (Miller).
Strength of the past
With the stakes so high, the next general election will be an all out fight, no holds barred event. Not since the election of 1980 will Jamaica witness the level of political violence and we can kid ourselves into believing that both leaders have graduated from “dutty” politics. Readers ought to be guided by the following:
- At the last Peoples National Party (PNP) annual conference in September of this year the Prime Minister declared that the “gutter politics” days of the 1970s and 80s were over and warned against simmering political tensions in Mountain View; the very next day the area erupted in violence. A few weeks later a meeting arranged between the area leaders by the Peace Management Initiative (PMI) was said to have been unilaterally called-off by Tony “Tego” Brown (formerly of the Hot Stepper Posse of the 1970s).
- Still earlier, on the 15th of January this year men returning from a PNP rally for the official launch of the presidential campaign for Security Minister Dr. Peter Phillips were allegedly involved in the fatal stabbing of Damion Hussey at Golden Spring in St. Andrew. The most prominent of the accused was 59-year-old farmer and contractor Milton “Tony” Welsh.
Old soldiers never die
For those too young to remember, itself an indictment of the media; Portia was tutored in her early days by none other than Tony Spaulding former Member of Parliament for St. Andrew Southern (Jungle). In a series of despicable acts between January and February 1976 residents of Wilton Gardens (Rema) the pro- Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) section of St. Andrew South Western constituency were attacked and burnt out by invaders from Jungle. Tony Welsh was subsequently detained at Up-Park Camp for his alleged involvement. Bear in mind that this seat was always won by the JLP and did not earn the dubious title as a garrison until after the 1976 election when Portia became its Member of Parliament. Coincidentally, St. Andrew Southern gained a similar title at the same time.
Golding’s association with Western Kingston did not begin when he inherited the constituency from Edward Seaga in 2005. It was a JLP supporter from that constituency who told constituents of Western St. Catherine in 1972 to elect the young Golding to replace his father. Golding won the seat in the election of that year but lost it in 1976, then moved on to South Central St. Catherine and finally to St. Catherine Central where he was instrumental in carving it into a garrison by the time of his second win in the 1993 election. Spanish Town subsequently became the most volatile community outside of the corporate area.
Influence peddlers
Two of the most vocal critics of the Prime Minister were her most ardent supporters in her presidential bid. How did Wilmot Perkins and Mark Wignall get it so wrong about the woman from the bowels of the working class? Could it possibly be that they knew all along what disaster she would prove to be and saw it as a sure way to get the PNP out of office. Their unequivocal support for Golding is therefore not surprising but can their judgment be trusted? In 1992 the media bought wholesale into the hoax of PJ Patterson as the Fresh Prince, and what a disaster that has proven.
Performance evaluation
Neither Portia nor Golding has demonstrated the capacity for leadership at the top. Since becoming Prime Minister, Portia has evaded every opportunity to lead this nation. What seems most uppermost in her mind is the “pump and pride” of office, not that of serving the people of Jamaica. It does appear that the office of Prime Minister to her is a prize well deserved for long and faithful dedication to her party. She was rendered by the cement crisis, blind-sided by the Trafigura Beheer saga and ineffective in containing the Malaria outbreak.
Golding has done no better as Opposition Leader he squandered the Trafigura capital by prematurely announcing the scandal and forced the postponement of the general election when he was advantageously positioned to win. He publicly reprimanded Andrew Gallimore over his stance on Air Jamaica made during the sectoral debate in 1995. Andrew Holness was admonished to apologize to the Bishop (Herro Blair, Political Ombudsman) for refusing the handshake during a tour of Olympic Gardens in September this year.
New brood same flock
Unfortunately for us the so called “Young Terk’ is from the same flock and will perpetuate the same-old-same. Anybody who has ever attempted to join one of the major political parties can relate to the difficult process. It is designed to keep out the unconnected and lumpen, so what you end up with since 1944 is political lineage from A- Z with names like Buchanan, Gallimore, Lawson, Sangster and Vaz. And the question is are they born leaders or are we the voters born losers?
